Screenwriting : What are your chances of selling a spec script? by Stevan Šerban

I sold one last year. Been delayed by due to losing a cast member. Starting rehearsals in April. Then straight into filming.

How many specs become big budget films. None.

How many specs become high quality Indies. Heaps.

How many specs are made outside Hollywood heaps more.

Movies like Arrival started as a Spec, Saving Mr Banks was a spec.

Know your market. Find were specs are sold and take your goods there.

Studios and big production companies do get involved in these indies. That may be why they get funded. But don’t bank on that. Do your apprenticeship. Learn your craft. That is easier in the indie world.

which film Industry are you complaining about now?

What do you mean by 85% of movies produced CANNOT be refunded ?

If someone buys your script, you should get paid. EVEN IF the movie doesn't get made. Your chances of selling one are impossible to gauge, but they are just as good as the next guy. It is all about who you know...so what are you doing to get to know the right people?

In the VHS/ DVD boom, many spec scripts became big budget films. There was an insatiable hunger from consumers for home viewing. Scripts would land on desk on a Monday morning and bids would go in on Friday afternoon. I am friends with a very successful writer/producer (don’t ask) who sold a script for 4.5m USD that never got made. Would never happen today though...

Stevan, there are all sorts of accounting reasons why movie investments cannot be 'refunded' (I assume you're talking profit here). Many film projects 'lose' money for all sorts of tax reasons but the investors don't actually lose any money; quite the opposite. A four year degree from any strong American Business school will show you how it's done with pixie dust, smoke-n-mirrors.

Joshua. if someone buys your script outrite, you get paid regardless of whether they make the film or not. I know - I'v sold a couple that were never produced. I care not.

Plus profit in the indie world is a longer term proposition. They don’t have theatrical release. They are more like books. They build an audience.

My job as a writer is to write a screenplay that will sell tickets (or rentals or downloads or whatever) based on the concept (trailer) and then DELIVER with even more entertainment than the audience expected so that word of mouth gets even more people to buy tickets (or rent or download or whatever) - so that the producer makes a lot of money and hires me again. My TV Movie for USA Network HARD EVIDENCE played a million times on TV before being released on video by Warners and was the #7 rental in the USA (back in video store days) beating a Julia Roberts new release (also from Warners). A month later it shot up the charts again due to word of mouth. The people who buy our scripts are making an investment. We need to write the script that is a great investment.

Dan MaxXx, Take a look at the income structure and you will see that only about 20% of the films produced return the money invested in their production!

Stevan Šerban over what period of time? Are we talk life term earning potential?

I love how people think this industry is full of fools pouring endless money into mindless products.

If you are talking vanity films for a few 100k yes you may be correct.

Stevan - after reading several of your comments, I can only conclude that business is not your strong suit.

https://stephenfollows.com/how-movies-make-money-hollywood-blockbusters/

This only applies to budgets over $ 100 million.

As 'Han Solo' would say, "Never tell me the odds!"

Or as Jim Carrey said in DUMB AND DUMBER after being told he had a less than a one in a million chance of getting together with the female lead (to paraphrase), "So, there's still a pretty good chance!"

Oh you guys and your odds. I just entered a March Madness tournament. If I pick every game correctly, I'll win 500 bucks. It only cost me 25. A math professor says the odds are something like 1 in 2 trillion to have a perfect bracket. Hmm....let's see 25 bucks...over 500....carry the integer of "who cares"...divided by 2 trillion over 1.....

......Yep......sounds good to me!

Best fortunes in your championship endeavors, Kennesaw State!

I never really wanted to be a screenwriter I just heard the odds were not good so I just wanted to see if I could beat them.

Hold on. Are you telling me it is a lottery and talent and skill has nothing to do with it? Why am I even talking to you losers? Where is the queue for the tickets?

Craig, a lot of 'em (not all) in here are espousing exactly that. I ask myself the same question; over & over. I don't see 'em as losers but as ignorant and uninformed - if I can reach/teach even just one; then it's worth it to me. I do have to admit that I get a little testy when I hear the trumpets of the loud and pompitous. I'm trying to get over it... I don't as yet... but I'll let you know.

Craig. When a screenwriter first starts out it is like trying to win the lottery. If someone gets writes enough screenplays to become better at it and manage to make some good contacts along the way the odds are no longer a factor.

I was just having fun. I don’t think my wife can handle me talking writing much more, so you guys are my outlet.

On a more serious note. If we entertain the idea that it is luck, I think that is damaging.

Luck removes the power from an individual to control their own destiny. Imagine the Olympic 100 final gold medal awarded by lottery. The bullshit right place at the right time myth. Luck is when Preparation meets an Opportunity. If you haven’t done the thousands of hours learning, writing and thinking. When someone asks if you have a script, you will not be ready. And all the people that believe in luck will say “that’s unlucky.”

This is the only industry that enables people to be as successful as they want to be. You have to be willing to do what is needed. Guillermo del Toro moved his entire family to New Zealand for the Hobbit. He enrolled his children in school even purchased as house. He was willing to do that to do that job. No luck involved.

Sorry to get ranty. But if you are willing to work, you will be lucky. The less talented and people that are not willing to work will look at you and say “they are just lucky”.

When screenwriters start out luck does play a major role. The odds are so bad starting out most people will give up after writing a couple of screenplays. That is why only about 1 in 4,000 will ever make any money writing screenplays and I don’t try to paint a rosy picture. If someone hears those kinds of odds and still want to try to break in as a screenwriter, they might actually become one.

Obviously not all of us are the same but here is how I figured out how most people break in. The first screenplay is usually just a learning experience so the odds of selling it an seeing it get made are about zero. Luck would have to play a big role for that to happen.

Let’s say there are about 200,000 unsold spec screenplays floating around Hollywood (the business) on any given day. Out of those maybe 70% were written by first time screenwriters and have about a zero chance. So, if someone writes two or three and they’ve learned the craft they would be competing with the top 30% or 60,000 that have a very slight chance. If they continue to get better after 4 to 6 screenplays, they would probably be competing with the top 3% or 6,000 or so screenplays. Plus, the screenwriter probably went back and rewrote some of their previous screenplays so the odds would be greater than that just because they’d have more inventory to offer. Now if someone continues to write say up to 7 through 9 screenplays, they should be pretty darn good by then if they’ve improved as a result of a lot of practice they’d be competing with the top 1% or 2,000 screenplays that would have a realistic chance. Also, by that time they’ve probably managed to make a few good connections in the business and that is when luck no longer plays a role.

I didn’t bring any of this up to discourage anyone in fact my goal is to let people know what they are really facing so they won’t give up after writing a few screenplays and not getting the results they hoped for. I knew this going in so my goal starting out was to write a dozen screenplays and if I didn’t sell one (option) by then I was going to throw in the towel.

First of all, while there is luck involved, I believe one makes his own luck, too. It's not an either/or situation, you might have a little, you might make a little and you make luck by working hard, being around, involved in the discussion, aware of new opportunities and standing by with screenplays to offer. Also, by selling different views of the same thing. Then, you're lucky to hit the right producer at the right time with the right project. A lot of research, too.

Look, it is real simple. Does someone want to invest in your script. If so, they will buy it and make the film. If they don't believe in your script (making money) then they won't buy it. There are lots of scripts. Some good ones. But, they will not sell if people do not believe them strong enough to make money. So you have to find that buyer that believes your script is good. That is the hard match.

I am going to quote the great American golfer Garry Player. He was known as the luckiest golfer in history.

He responded to this with “the more I practice the luckier I get”.

The vast numbers of writers and screenplays make it virtually impossible to be seen. What do you think makes you stand out and be memorable? Luck or Good writing?

I know what I believe.

'tell you in about a year... :)

Or in Poker the saying goes “I’d rather be lucky than good”

Craig. That is true. The problem most screenwriters have is they give up before that which is why the odds don't seem so good to most aspiring screenwriters. My goal was to write 12 screenplays and see what happens.

Hate to nitpick but Gary Player is South African.

Thanks Dash, I know the quote, not the sport, lol.

Dan Guardino I am glad that they find out early that is it takes effort with no return. I know I sound like a downer. But you can feel that a person isn't going to last.

”where do I send my scripts to sell it”. They expect that all they have to do is send it somewhere and people will do all the work for them. If they say something like ”what do I have to do get my script ready for market” is a far better question.

How do we improve the odds in our favour?

Kevin Jackson become a better writer through practice. Read scripts to learn more. Write heaps until it becomes second nature.

Enter some comps, these are fun. Enter the big ones.

Treat it like a second job. Reach out to everyone you can. Directors, actors, producers, build relationships.

"Relationship building" can be costly in this metoo era, especially an industry based on good looks and fame.

Look at the news on any day and chances are some once famous and successful "relationship builder" loses everything.

I'm not so sure this is an industry of HONEST relationships. Could be wrong.

You are probably not going to build a relationship with an “A list” anything. What is wrong with smaller people in an indie space. Or junior executives.

Everyone here is only four steps from the Myth Busters. The producer of my Brother’s show was the Producer of Myth Busters.

A relationship is as honest as the people in it.

Start an LLC and sell your spec script to LLC, pay yourself a writer's fee, pay franchise state taxes. Seek Investors to pony$ dev funds, pay yourself a salary, open company credit cards and then quit, fold up shop and move on to next idea, next LLC.

Lemme know if anybody needs tips on movie money laundering :)

haha funny Damian. Be less moved, lament less, and and put your money where your opinion is! And of course you're in Canada.

Or just find legitimate industry to work in. Bingo!!

Dan, laundering money is exactly what you described. How about pre-selling out concerts (just the first few rows though), and calling that success.

The statistic is clear: less than .1% someone else wants to buy your script! Just the reality of the industry, not the lie they sell you in film school.

"You probably know the percentage chance that someone wants to buy your script - 0.1%."

The world and this industry needs fewer beta boys like you. But You do seem to have some issues with other heterosexual males. Is this your kink for picking up on women, claiming to defend them from Your illusions?

We've been wondering where the false claims against American males have been originating, thanks for identifying yourself.

And if you keep up with the false allegations, you might want to learn what libel and slander are, you could be charged with it!!!!

Andre. You don't need to have a relationship with anyone. What you need is contacts in the business that might be able to help you launch your career.

Andre and Damian. This personal stuff is a waste of your time and is frowned upon here so please move on to something more productive.

Dan G, don’t stop people. My children have grown up and left home. I miss childish behaviour.

As I have said before. Yes 0.0001% if you have no idea. may go up if you read scripts. It goes up more if you practice, it goes up more if your engage with the industry. It will continue to rise until you are at a professional level. Then there is no luck.

"85% of movies produced CANNOT be refunded! " - oh how I have wished I could get a refund after walking out of certain movies!

I know that's not what you meant, but... ;-)

Entourage was 85% accurate on Hollywood.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfVkfqD5I_w&t=7s