Trump’s tariffs… what everyone is missing.
“100% Tariff on all movies coming into US that are produced in foreign countries.”
That’s the core of the US president’s post that set off a firestorm in the industry.
On one hand, this could be the final bullet as speculation over who would be affected ran rampant:
* Sony Pictures (Japan-owned studio)
* Netflix (worst case scenario estimates: $3bn in costs, 20% reduction in earnings)
* James Cameron (Avatar is created in New Zealand)
* Hollywood productions shot worldwide (A Minecraft Movie, Gladiator II, Avengers: Doomsday, etc.)
* Hollywood films shot partially overseas (Thunderbolts*, Mission: Impossible).
* Oscar Best Picture Nominees (only 3 out of 10 films this year were shot entirely in the US)
* Indie films that can no longer afford to shoot in the US
* On the other hand, Hollywood is in dire need of a bailout.
COVID, labor strikes, an M&A hellscape, and the wildfires have crushed margins, resulting in an exodus of shoots to foreign countries where labor is cheaper (IATSE reports 10K+ job losses in 2 years) and tax incentives are higher (30% in Hungary, 25% in Bulgaria).
Plus, interest in moviegoing post-COVID has waned with the streamers/social media giants gaining an asymmetrical advantage to keep people home and glued to their phones/screens. Case in point: the 2019 domestic box office was $11.4bn, with the highest post-COVID total down 20% ($9.1bn in 2023).
Hollywood’s special ambassadors, Jon Voight, Sylvester Stallone, and Mel Gibson, are no strangers to this. Gibson’s Passion of the Christ 2 is filming in Italy, and two of Voight’s latest films, The Last Gunfight (2025) and Shadow Land (2024), were made in Bulgaria.
Last week, Voight made the rounds with the Motion Picture Association, pushing lawmakers to adopt a federal production incentive (w/ no mention of tariffs). The MPA drafted two one-pagers urging Congress to create manufacturing-linked incentives for domestic employment.
If the administration really wants to help the industry, skip the punishment.
Instead, create incentives big enough to change the calculus. For instance, if the U.S. adopted a federal tax credit similar to the $7.5bn program proposed by CA Governor Gavin Newsom (23x larger than CA’s current $330M credit), the potential ROI on investment will be massive.
When CA spent $109.5M in this last round of its tax credit program, funding 51 projects (including 46 indies, which we covered in depth), they generated $347M in wages and $578M in economic activity and employed over 6,490 cast and crew.
Scaling that out, a $7.5bn incentive would generate nearly $24bn in wages and $40bn in economic activity.
Imagine this money being re-distributed to the states that have seen a mass exodus of production, like California, New York, and Georgia. A federal film fund bump that pays out 10-20% on top of the state’s incentives could be the lifeline that gives producers the confidence to return home.
That’s how you bring the business back.
What do you think of this assessment?
Will this undermine US tax incentives, or act as an incentive to produce in America, if European Producers want access to the American market?
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Thank you John and Emma, we're off for the live webinar!!