Universal’s Wicked: For Good is poised to cast a much-needed spell over the box office. After a sluggish autumn, the second half of Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the beloved Broadway musical is projected to open north of $200M globally, making it the biggest debut ever for a Broadway feature adaptation.
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The film is already Fandango’s biggest PG-rated pre-seller of all time and the strongest advance ticket seller of 2025. Early estimates point to $125M–$150M domestically and $70M+ internationally across 78 markets, and that’s before we even account for premium formats and the film’s huge fan previews.
Last year’s Wicked set a record with a $112.5M domestic opening and a $164M global debut. With its current presales and massive global tour, featuring Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Michelle Yeoh, Jeff Goldblum, Jonathan Bailey, and more, Wicked: For Good looks ready to surpass those numbers and reset the bar for musical adaptations.
The first film went on to earn 10 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, and grossed $758.7M worldwide. The sequel enters theaters with a 97% audience score from early Amazon sneak previews and strong momentum from fans of both the musical and the franchise’s first installment.
For filmmakers, this raises some interesting industry questions:
• What does this mean for the future of large-scale musical adaptations?
• How much of this success is tied to built-in IP vs. global marketing strategy?
• And what can we learn from the way Universal and Chu have positioned this as a two-part cinematic event?
What’s your favorite musical adaptation of all time, and what made it work?
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Those are staggering numbers and a huge win for the musical genre. To your question, I think the key lesson is treating a beloved IP as a cinematic event, not just an adaptation. The two-part release, A-list casting, and visual spectacle convinced audiences this was a must-see movie, not just a filmed play. As for my fave adaptation, maybe I'll fall back on West Side Story? (Not the hugest musical fan!)
2 people like this
Vice-versa, the PARANORMAL broadway show is doing great. Love seeing IPs have longevity. Each medium brings a new, exciting perspective.