After the market crash in the twenties and into the Great Depression people needed WORK!
I predict many actors will go FICORE in the months ahead.
And, along with the crippled theatrical exhibitors the unions will begin losing their grip on independent productions.
Perhaps we'll see a renaissance of filmmaking art - free of quotas, arbitrary financial hurdles and traps, and the need for 5 highly paid people to screw in a lightbulb.
Watch more and more name actors and crew members forgoing union and guild membership and beginning to think and negotiate (hard) for themselves. It'll become the cool thing to do.
It will become simply about getting work to ply their craft and to pay their bills.
Agreed.
But all of that could be negotiated in a contract.
I believe talent will forgo 3rd party intervention, for the simple opportunity to earn a living.
Entertainment attorneys (who'll also be scrounging for clients) will develop packaging for talent and producers alike to address and secure those minimums, residuals, etc.
With projected 30%-plus unemployment in the future, the overwhelming demand will seriously drive the supply and production.
Look back on seminal Hollywood union organizers like Pat Casey, George Brown, John Rosselli and Will Bioff during the depression.
History will repeat itself.
Tom - I'm with you on this. Hope springs eternal (but I ain't holdin' my breath).
Damian - you poise an interesting discussion topic. My pov only; Hollywood is drifting out of CA because it's to costly to produce profitable films there. One of the drivers of that trend is the ever expanding cost of labor - thanks in large part to the unions. There is talent of all sorts all over the US. I think this bodes well for the indies all 'round the nation.
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A bit of personal history...My grandfather founded National Screen Service Corporation. They made all the trailers, posters, and lobby signs for all the movies in 20s, 30s, 40s, and early 50s. During the depression they did very well because going to a movie was the only thing people could afford.
I think tax breaks and other such enticements are a drawing factor 'to' - for sure. But I also think the exorbitant production expenses (including labor) act as the 'push from' factor. It's a balanced equation.
Here's a Film Journalist's short/long term prediction
https://mailchi.mp/0ef0cfe8239c/confronting-the-new-reality-covid-19-and...
Actors who already don't make a living off acting will not be well advised to dump their SAG card... it's too valuable long term. The guilds and unions aren't going away.. There is already a massive overbooking of stage space in Los Angeles; as soon as production returns, it will be a bottleneck of work. You cannot book a stage in the next 6 months; there is an avalanche of production waiting to schedule once the restrictions lift; ask anyone in studio operations, or look at recent HR or Variety articles. What will likely disappear because of the economic fallout is the smaller budgeted, self funded / one-off indies that still have $ to pay cast and crew. I predict normal IA /SAG signatory shows will be going full throttle, and ULB projects will all but disappear. If you make a living off self-funded indies, you are in a very unusual minority. Jobs bartending, valeting, serving, and gigging may be a problem in the economy. I suspect a lot of good actors and crew who did film part time leave Los Angeles in the next year... I know 4 who already left, just off my personal FB.
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What's happening at the moment is that producers are DEVELOPING LIKE CRAZY!
Why?
Because there's not much else to do.
So when the cogs go back into motion, competition is going to be stiff, with less money than usual to go around.
As a result, it may be a case of first come, first served, depending on how long this [insert word of your own choice to describe the "corona" event] drags.
C. D, I think what you say is true (at least that's what I'm doing).