Hello S32,
Times have changed. Covid-19 is happening. Nothing will be the same. At the risk of sounding defeatist about the disease fact is... there has still been no cure or vaccine for HIV-Aids all these years later and all this optimism about the world going back to normal in just a few short months seem farfetched to me.
So what happens to the film industry should covid-19 persist? Cinema dies. Box office sales drop exponentially. Film distribution channels that thrive promote social distancing like online platforms like Netflix etc. The online distributors and the other socially distant film distributors will become more profitable as people will be self quarantined and spending more time indoors which means more media consumption.
Fact is.. things will change and they will change drastically but I just wanted to say, the industry will thrive. In fact I want to predict that it will grow. We can still make anything happen on the silver screen with CGI. I have worked on big Hollywood sets when they shoot in my country, films with thousands of extras and hundreds of crew and I'm not even concerned because the industry was already evolving towards CGI production in a big way and the industry is well equipped for the transition.
So during these dark times... we must all be grateful that we can still write and studios can still produce.
What are your thoughts? Are you panicking with the rest of them that film is dead because of the way the pandemic will affect cinema? Or are you an optimist like me who still has hope for my script that was requested that opens with a gathering of thousands scene?
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Hi Ally,
I don't think there's any need to panic. There's no cure for the common cold or the flu, but we have lived with both of these viruses for many decades. The Spanish Flu infected about a quarter of the world's population at that time.
The current social distancing and hygiene guidelines is putting in to practice lessons learned, so that we minimize the transmission and effect of the virus.
Kind Regards,
Eoin
Dan, I think that's a fairly good assessment. I think it bodes well for the Indie world.
Dan, what do you make of software's like WorldViz which put CGI coding in the hands of the average citizen. Do you not think that the fact that products like WorldViz would mean even spec scripts and indie film makers can make their own CGI films?
I worked for a company in Cape Town that was going to attempt to code the first 360 feature length film in Africa on WorldViz alone, sound stage etc. The company is still making the film, it's just my role as a researcher for the script has come to an end. That company employs 4 computer programmers with art backgrounds and no film experience to code the film on WorldViz in a tiny office in the city centre. It is hardly a film crew and overcrowding. This makes me believe that in collaboration with IT professionals even Indie film makers could make CGI films or am I wrong?
Maybe I'm just being too optimistic... but boy am I.
Eoin, I'm not panicking. I'm just thinking long term. And you're right about the flu and the other viruses, except Corona kills faster. You get Corona today, dead in a week. Don't you think that would make treating it more difficult than the flu? People will die if it's not contained... by the thousands. So I believe we should be safe, practice social distancing and follow the world health organization's guidelines, which we'll have to do whether or not there is a vaccine or a cure because dead. 1 week and you're out... this is way worse than than the black plague. We are now a separated people... you can tell me if I still sound like I'm panicking.
Okay Dan, you're right but I still feel that Hollywood given its capacity will produce spec in CGI because it's so easily doable or I'm just a sucker...
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Yep. Cinema may shut down. But the building stands. Someone will move in.
Some productions will stop. But the ones that are robust will survive.
The indie market will bloom. My prediction. Low budget can spin up quickly.
Work will come back. People that are just hanging on in the industry will leave for more stable money. This means that the people left will have a survivable income.
We had a baby boom after WW2. Which lead to the most growth in human history. Why is this disaster different.
This is a reset in so many things.
Some big studios may close. They need cashflow to stay open. Is that a bad thing. They suck millions out of an industry just to maintain their bulk.
This is a reality. We can’t take it personal.
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Great questions, Ally! I'm more of a Pollyanna in these situations. My husband's business is at a standstill during this, and even with no foreseeable income for the next 2-3 months (yet still have the overhead) but I have no fear. Our children have never not been fed, our needs always met. The grass can always be muddier on the other side, so I shall stand on the grass I have and I am grateful for the here and the now. I have food in my fridge, a roof over my head, healthy children and hubs. Like Craig said above me, "the building stands." To anyone who wants to panic: I promise, it is not that bad. Here is what fear is: False Evidence Appearing Real. Panic is nobody's friend.
Kbye.
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Well said Craig. Things will change but the industry will survive. I'm forever the optimist.
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Cannon, you and me both. You are a lucky woman and your happiness is infectious. Thank you for your positivity. Have fun quarantining with your family, I wish you even more happiness and health.
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I heard a great quote from Marcus Luttrell this morning that really motivated me. He said, "Don't let the fear set in." It is so simple but so poignant. (If you don't know who Marcus Luttrell is, he was the Navy Seal on which the film Lone Survivor with Mark Walhberg was based, so that dude knows something about fear.)
I agree Ally, there will certainly be changes and ways we as an industry will need to adapt. Remember that when television came out the film industry feared it was dead. When VHS came out the film industry thought it was dead. When premium cable/satellite launched networks thought they were dead. When streaming came out the DVD/VHS/Blu-Ray market was feared to be dead. Change happens in the industry constantly and sometimes violently. But we are resourceful and creative and those who adapt will be the ones who succeed.
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Wow Jason, you just reminded me how resilient the industry has been through so many changes. I think your comment alone will alleviate a lot fear. Thank you.
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Thanks Ally Shina! Glad to be helpful, especially now!
Positives, willpower, resilience and more! It's all still here, this is great! Love the topic on CGI!
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Thanks Eon. Glad you're staying positive.